US Economy
The United States economy is entering a period of profound uncertainty as the latest labor data paints a picture of a rapidly cooling engine. With initial jobless claims stabilizing at a notable 206,000 for the final week of January and the December jobs report revealing a meager addition of
QCP Capital
Global financial markets, as assessed by QCP Capital, are currently exhibiting distinct characteristics of a late-cycle economic expansion rather than the early tremors of a recession. This nuanced perspective, highlighted in recent market observations around November 18-20, 2025, posits a resilient global economy, driven by robust corporate earnings and sustained
Cleveland Fed
Cleveland, OH – November 12, 2025 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has once again captured the financial world's attention with its unique recession probability models, particularly one that taps into the elusive realm of economic "vibes" or sentiment. As of its latest update on November 10,
Recession
The financial markets are increasingly flashing warning signs that an economic recession may be on the horizon, prompting investors to re-evaluate their strategies. A confluence of indicators, from inverted yield curves to softening corporate earnings and shifting consumer sentiment, suggests that the robust growth seen in recent years could be
Gold
In a financial landscape increasingly defined by volatility and apprehension, investors are flocking to the time-honored safe havens of gold and silver, driving both precious metals to unprecedented price levels. As of October 17, 2025, gold has soared past the $4,300 per troy ounce mark, while silver has breached
Stock Market
As October 2025 unfolds, a palpable tension hangs over global financial markets. Despite record highs in major indices like the Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: NDX) and the FTSE 100 (LSE: UKX), a growing chorus of analysts and economists are sounding the alarm, warning that the stock market is exhibiting classic signs
David Rosenberg
In an era often characterized by bullish exuberance and a seemingly unstoppable rise in tech-driven equities, one voice has consistently sounded a note of caution, often to the market's eventual benefit: David Rosenberg. The renowned economist and president of Rosenberg Research, frequently dubbed a "Perma-bear" – a
Gold
In an increasingly volatile global landscape, gold and silver have emerged as undeniable beacons of stability, with unprecedented demand driving their prices to multi-year highs. A potent cocktail of escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent economic uncertainties has propelled these precious metals into the forefront of investment strategies, reaffirming their age-old
Stagflation
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates has sent a tremor of concern through financial markets, sparking fears of a potential return to stagflation—an economic phenomenon characterized by the unsettling combination of stagnant growth, high unemployment, and persistent inflation. This unprecedented monetary easing comes
Fed Rate Cut
The financial world is abuzz with anticipation as a Federal Reserve interest rate cut appears firmly on the horizon. This imminent shift in monetary policy has ignited a fierce debate among economists and investors: Will the U.S. economy achieve a coveted "soft landing," where inflation subsides without
Economy
The financial world often relies on time-tested indicators to forecast economic shifts, and few are as closely watched as the yield curve. Historically, when short-term government bonds yield more than long-term ones—an "inversion"—it has served as a near-infallible harbinger of recession. Yet, from 2022 through 2024,
Yield Curve
In a development that has sent ripples of concern through financial markets, the U.S. Treasury yield curve underwent a significant un-inversion in April 2025, following its longest inversion in history, spanning from 2022 through 2024. This shift, characterized by short-term interest rates falling below long-term rates once again, initially