Moody's Analytics

US Economy

U.S. Labor Market Stalls: Moody's Reports 'Essentially No Job Growth' Amidst Government Shutdown, Raising Recession Fears

Washington D.C., October 6, 2025 – The American labor market appears to have hit a significant speed bump, with Moody's Analytics reporting "essentially no job growth" for the U.S. in September 2025. This concerning assessment comes at a critical juncture for the economy, compounded by

Recession

Recession Radar: A Divergent Outlook on America's Economic Future

The U.S. economy finds itself at a crossroads, with leading financial institutions and economic forecasters presenting a varied, yet generally cautious, outlook on the probability of a recession. From machine learning algorithms to traditional yield curve models, the consensus is that while a severe downturn isn't a