Federal Reserve
The Neutral Rate Horizon: Federal Reserve Navigates a Fragile Equilibrium as 2026 Begins
As the calendar turns to January 14, 2026, the Federal Reserve finds itself at a critical juncture in its multi-year campaign to stabilize the American economy. After a series of calibrated adjustments throughout late 2025, the federal funds rate currently sits at a consensus target of 3.50%–3.75%